Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 8.847681 10.410575 12.121817 14.128352 16.410121 18.917494 21.874368
2025-02-09 6.476821 8.605097 11.173988 14.473239 18.565199 23.438760 29.643828
2025-02-16 4.815750 7.125270 10.159592 14.367788 19.971885 27.089190 36.708274
2025-02-23 3.607394 5.891723 9.131576 13.938729 20.743131 29.863075 42.808751
2025-03-02 2.716191 4.871596 8.154592 13.334656 21.076353 31.952601 48.056526
2025-03-09 2.182844 4.262106 7.637482 13.257516 22.057570 34.921510 54.648807
2025-03-16 1.744611 3.702078 7.081347 13.001746 22.683149 37.360318 60.595329
2025-03-23 1.552913 3.532472 7.127534 13.691103 24.802188 42.136946 70.267706
2025-03-30 1.318393 3.225987 6.877182 13.829634 26.016268 45.579761 78.113057
2025-04-06 1.112835 2.928687 6.588816 13.848453 27.004868 48.703800 85.625584
2025-04-13 0.936896 2.651834 6.289535 13.796361 27.842757 51.611655 92.938615
2025-04-20 0.885597 2.648297 6.532463 14.785358 30.591797 57.839407 105.954658
2025-04-27 0.802996 2.557308 6.593395 15.453959 32.868286 63.506040 118.532320
2025-05-04 0.722090 2.452495 6.610885 16.042465 35.057961 69.187779 131.505547
2025-05-11 0.610910 2.235926 6.341085 16.001754 36.043223 72.821047 141.206723
2025-05-18 0.495831 1.971994 5.910820 15.556463 36.185501 74.939349 148.388655
2025-05-25 0.391959 1.705298 5.419401 14.901418 35.828699 76.097331 153.913011
2025-06-01 0.330380 1.554649 5.194227 14.819467 36.629817 79.441508 163.505455
2025-06-08 0.271859 1.392091 4.903635 14.539244 36.976476 81.928082 171.646535
2025-06-15 0.254648 1.379747 5.031943 15.297283 39.625387 89.008375 188.603499
2025-06-22 0.221891 1.292641 4.925694 15.449603 40.942534 93.535544 200.973574
2025-06-29 0.190403 1.197616 4.776478 15.470319 41.960572 97.517221 212.488409
2025-07-06 0.161808 1.102454 4.606859 15.413103 42.789949 101.156241 223.505278